Scenario Planning 101 - Enrich Consulting

Uh-oh

The goal of portfolio management is to effect changes that minimize risk and maximize value. But change is hard, and corporate change is harder still. People need motivation. The best way to build that motivation is to lay the consequences of the present course bare and make the status quo completely unpalatable. Like Thelma and Louise, you have to ask, “Where are we headed?” In a portfolio review, that means asking, “What will our current investments in R&D, marketing, and sales get us? How likely are we to meet our strategic goals?”

Scenario planning is the best tool in your toolbox for answering these questions. In scenario planning, you play out the value of the present course of action in the context of a number of alternative futures created by hypothetical changes in the environment and in your strategy and tactics. You can do the same thing for a number of different approaches, mapping different courses and their likely destinations. In the process, hopefully, you’ll also convince the your management to choose a plan and act on it.

You say scen-air-io, I say scen-ah-rio

Like ‘equality’, ‘socialism’, and ‘responsible parenting’, ‘scenario analysis’ is a phrase that means different things to different people. I like to categorize R&D scenario analysis into four different types, based on the time horizon being explored. Knowing which type of planning you’re doing—how far out you want to look—will guide you to the right methods, and level of detail, to meet your objectives.

Short-term scenario planning is tactical: What can we do to execute faster, or for less money? It involves adjusting schedules, hiring plans, and outsourcing to simply get things done. This type of scenario planning is deep in the details of who needs to do what when, and it’s typically done on a project-by-project or perhaps division-basis.

Medium-term scenario planning is strategic: Are the product lines delivering on their goals? Do we have the right spending balance between technology platforms? Should we expand into less-developed markets? There is still a fair amount of detail required to understand the present course and to chart the course of each scenario.

Long-term scenario planning looks farther, and it also looks outside the organization, considering changes in regulation, competition, and customer evolution in addition to internal resource constraints and project team outcomes. In accordance with the longer time horizon, the scenarios are outlined in considerably less detail than for shorter-term planning.

Distant scenario planning is a visionary activity, meant to shake up business as usual by painting a picture of the distant future that requires a very different set of business responses to radical changes in the markets, geopolitics, or natural environment.

There are several distinctions you could make about the various types of scenario planning, such as who pioneered each one, which industries use them, and the mechanics involved. I believe it’s most useful to keep the end in mind: Are you looking for insights/planning for resilience about the recent future, the near term future, or the distant future? The time horizons for each might vary, depending on your business cycle (e.g., aviation vs. toilet tissue) but the basic outlines are generally applicable. I summarize the methods in the table here.

Horizon	Outlook	Orientation	Uncertainties	Level of Detail	Example Responses	Scope
Short term	3 months – 3 years	Tactical/ Operations	Internal: project based	Very high	Introduce/abandon an initiative Accelerate/delay an initiative Hiring vs. outsourcing	Project/ Division
Medium term	6 months – 6 years	Strategic	Internal: projects and resource availability External: Competition, regulatory	High	Add/cancel product line Plan regional expansion Add/cancel a technology platform	Division/ Company
Long term	3 years – 15 years	Long Range Planning	Internal and external: Multiple	Medium	Play out a mega-acquisition	Company
Distant	10 – 50 years	Visionary	External: Technological, macroeconomic, environmental, political	Low	Formulate response to emerging megatrends, such as peak oil, growing global population, lengthening life expectancy	Society/ Company

Regardless of the time horizon you employ, scenario planning involves several critical activities, beginning with understanding your likely destination, assessing the alternatives, choosing an alternative, and, finally, acting on it. Then the cycle begins again. The scenario planning cycle is summarized in the diagram here.

All scenario planning follows a cycle that begins with a future state, considers responses to internal and/or external events, and ends with a decision on whether and how to act.

Where are we headed?

So how can we tell where we’re going? A solid medium-term scenario planning exercise can emerge from a good set of portfolio analytics. Charts like a plot of risk vs. value (also known as a “Boston Portfolio Matrix” plot) give a good snapshot of the portfolio and tell us a little about balance and outliers (for instance the project labeled Eaglogen) but aren’t clear enough about where we’re headed. Are we taking on too much risk, or not enough? Do we have enough long-term projects, or are we too focused on next quarter?

Traditional portfolio plots of risk vs. value tell us less than we need to know to plan our next move

What’s needed are views that show whether the current portfolio will achieve strategic goals. Landscape charts, which aggregate chart data across divisions or technology platforms, may be useful here, offering an immediate signal of whether a division is project-heavy or project-light, and whether the mix of early- and late-stage projects is weighted as expected. These have to be looked at in the context of the strategy. In our example, for instance, what we do with the Dermatology division depends on how it fits into our strategy. If building up Dermatology is a central tenet of the strategy, we should find additional projects to bolster it. If it’s an ancillary franchise, perhaps we should out-license or cancel its projects, to free up resources for more important pursuits.

Landscape plots like this one communicate where we’re placing our bets, allowing us to compare spending to strategy

But for scenario planning, we need to understand how the portfolio meets strategic goals at future points in time; for this, bar/line charts with overlays can be illustrative. For example, overlay a line graph of 5- and 10-year revenue targets over a bar chart of the revenue forecast for the portfolio. Our example portfolio is well positioned to make its revenue targets, at least in this scenario:And unless you’re in a “sure-thing” business, don’t forget to risk adjust your revenues based on historical rates of technology and commercial success—and be prepared for that calculation to change things. In the risk adjusted view, our example portfolio does fine ni the short term, but begins to fall short of longer-term targets:

This portfolio meets revenue targets, but we are assuming all projects surmount technical and market challenges

And unless you’re in a “sure-thing” business, don’t forget to risk adjust your revenues based on historical rates of technology and commercial success—and be prepared for that calculation to change things. In the risk adjusted view, our example portfolio does fine ni the short term, but begins to fall short of longer-term targets:

When technical and regulatory risks are taken into account, long term revenue falls short of strategic goals

So, where do we go from here? With an unpalatable future mapped, we can now craft responses to the status quo. What can we do differently now (and soon) to change course? Can projects be accelerated or added? Or can poor-performing projects be cleared away to make room for new initiatives?

It’s time to determine how the status quo investment plan compares to alternative investment mixes. This requires the ability to trade-off multiple objectives across multiple options. A good dashboard presentation, with each investment alternative is represented by a line or bubble, makes this possible.

Looking at a single portfolio option is seldom sufficient: modern portfolio management tools allow direct comparison of all strategic goals against multiple investment alternatives

In our example, the center chart—Expected Portfolio Revenues—tells the story: all of the alternative scenarios meet long-term revenue targets, while leaving development funds on the table. It’s time for the team to look for organic R&D or partnering opportunities that could make effective use of the remaining funds, and deliver even more revenues.

For this relatively simple medium-term scenario-planning exercise, the trade-offs and decision points are clear. Your results may be messier or more complicated, but a good scenario planning exercise can illuminate the results of current plans and point the way to more productive alternatives. The clarity that solid, intuitively presented analytics, like the graphs and charts that illustrate our example, can clarify the choices and motivate management to take action.

Each year, tens of billions of dollars in R&D investments are shaped, allocated, and refined with the help of Enrich’s EAP. Are you interested in learning how we can help streamline your portfolio reviews, turning months of long nights and frustration into a value-enhancing, confidence-affirming exercise for your R&D organization? Contact us, and learn what our clients already know about the value of the Enrich Analytics Platform.

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