{"id":12044,"date":"2015-04-14T08:02:26","date_gmt":"2015-04-14T13:02:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/?p=12044"},"modified":"2020-02-20T08:08:49","modified_gmt":"2020-02-20T14:08:49","slug":"lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/","title":{"rendered":"Lean Metrics: Measure Predictability with Facts over Estimates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12045\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Predictability-blog-smaller-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Predictability-blog-smaller-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Predictability-blog-smaller-1024x683-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Predictability-blog-smaller-1024x683-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Predictability-blog-smaller-1024x683-750x500.jpg 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A predictable outcome is one of the most sought-after goals in any business or initiative. It\u2019s easy to see why.<\/p>\n<p>We often correlate predictability with attractive benefits like lower risk, higher business value, and maybe even less stress. So with every new project, we dutifully gather time, effort, and resource estimates from all involved \u2014 hoping that this time we\u2019ll nail it.<\/p>\n<p>Except we rarely do.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_80 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/#Fact-Based_Predictability_with_Lean_Metrics\" >Fact-Based Predictability with Lean Metrics<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/#Using_Predictability_Metrics_for_Continuous_Improvement\" >Using Predictability Metrics for Continuous Improvement<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/#The_Bottom_Line\" >The Bottom Line<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/#Recommended_Reading\" >Recommended Reading<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Fact-Based_Predictability_with_Lean_Metrics\"><\/span>Fact-Based Predictability with Lean Metrics<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Predictability metrics help teams make more accurate estimates about the completion and consistency of their work items. This can lead to better work prioritization and more targeted communications among stakeholders.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cIf you can make decisions based on facts rather than forecasts, you get results that are more predictable. Lean development is the art and discipline of basing commitments on facts rather than forecasts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Mary Poppendieck,\u00a0<a title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/docplayer.net\/8547224-Lean-development-predictability-paradox-and-the-cutter-consortium-executive-report-mary-poppendieck-publication-in-august-2003.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>Lean Development and the Predictability Paradox<\/em><\/a> (2003)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12046\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2015-04-13-at-12.16.03-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1436\" height=\"692\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2015-04-13-at-12.16.03-PM.png 1436w, https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2015-04-13-at-12.16.03-PM-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2015-04-13-at-12.16.03-PM-768x370.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2015-04-13-at-12.16.03-PM-1024x493.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2015-04-13-at-12.16.03-PM-750x361.png 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1436px) 100vw, 1436px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Teams can use a process control chart to graphically represent their cycle time and completion consistency. The Planview AgilePlace-generated chart above plots a team\u2019s recent work items based on their cycle time. (Note: In this instance, cycle time refers to how many days it took to finish a work item.)<\/p>\n<p>In addition to showing the team\u2019s average cycle time (17.5 days), the chart includes three standard deviations to help predict if the team will complete a work item within a certain timeline:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>68% of the time, the team will finish a work item within 35.5 days.<\/li>\n<li>95% of the time, the team will finish a work item within 54.5 days.<\/li>\n<li>99% of the time, the team will finish a work item within 89.7 days.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The key to using a predictability chart is to take the range of possible delivery dates and apply them to your team\u2019s work. Then, when you\u2019re asked to provide an estimate of how long something will take, you can turn to the chart \u2014 instead of making an arbitrary guess. With about 70% certainty, you can say that your team can finish a work item in about 36 days. For a higher level of certainty, you know you need to start a work item about 55 days before it must be delivered. In contrast to estimates, using historical date ranges can give teams and their stakeholders a more realistic view of their anticipated cycle time.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Using_Predictability_Metrics_for_Continuous_Improvement\"><\/span>Using Predictability Metrics for Continuous Improvement<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>In addition to more confident timelines, teams can use predictability charts for\u00a0<a title=\"What is Continuous Improvement?\" href=https:\/\/www.planview.com\/resources\/articles\/kanban-continuous-improvement\/ target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-ol-has-click-handler=\"\">continuous improvement<\/a>. For example, data points that fall inside the range of three standard deviations (99% confidence) are often referred to as being \u201cin control.\u201d In-control data points influence the bulk of our day-to-day improvement efforts. We can use them to improve predictability by reducing the range of outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>Using the chart shown above, again: If we can get our 95% confidence interval down from 55 to 45 days, we\u2019ll get a major improvement in predictability. We can then be more confident in the commitments we make to stakeholders regarding delivery of valuable work. Ways to achieve this include limiting our work-in-process, spending more time analyzing and breaking down work items into smaller chunks, or working to automate recurring processes.<\/p>\n<p>It can also be useful to analyze the data points that lie\u00a0outside the range of three standard deviations in a predictability chart. These points are considered \u201cout of control,\u201d but they\u2019re excellent candidates for\u00a0<a title=\"How to Run Effective Standups and Retrospectives\" href=\"\/how-to-run-effective-standups-and-retrospectives\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-ol-has-click-handler=\"\">team retrospectives<\/a>,\u00a0<a title=\"What is Lean Coffee?\" href=\"http:\/\/leancoffee.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-ol-has-click-handler=\"\">lean coffees<\/a>, or a root cause analysis. Investigating them can help you find ways to improve.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Bottom_Line\"><\/span>The Bottom Line<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Predictability metrics can help improve accuracy by injecting facts into your analysis. Using completion consistency charts allows you to make more realistic predictions about the prospective outcomes of work items entering your system. This metric can help you measure the effect of your improvement efforts and allow you to confidently commit to reasonable timelines based on facts, not estimates.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Recommended_Reading\"><\/span>Recommended Reading<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=https:\/\/www.planview.com\/resources\/articles\/lean-metrics-improve-flow\/ target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-ol-has-click-handler=\"\">7 Lean Metrics to Improve Flow<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a title=\"Enhanced Lean Metrics: More Speed and Insight\" href=https:\/\/www.planview.com\/resources\/articles\/kanban-continuous-improvement\/ target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kanban: How to Get Started with Continuous Improvement<\/a>\u00a0(includes four Kanban metrics that any team can track)<\/li>\n<li><a title=\"Enhanced Lean Metrics: More Speed and Insight\" href=\"\/enhanced-lean-metrics-more-speed-and-insight\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-ol-has-click-handler=\"\">Enhanced Lean Metrics: More Speed and Insight<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A predictable outcome is one of the most sought-after goals in any business or initiative. It\u2019s easy to see why. We often correlate predictability with attractive benefits like lower risk, higher business value, and maybe even less stress. So with every new project, we dutifully gather time, effort, and resource estimates from all involved \u2014&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":148,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_editorskit_title_hidden":false,"_editorskit_reading_time":0,"_editorskit_is_block_options_detached":false,"_editorskit_block_options_position":"{}","footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[511],"class_list":["post-12044","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-work-collaboration","tag-leankit"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Lean Metrics: Measure Predictability with Facts over Estimates - Blog | Planview<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We often correlate predictability with attractive benefits like lower risk, higher business value, and maybe even less stress.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lean Metrics: Measure Predictability with Facts over Estimates\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We often correlate predictability with attractive benefits like lower risk, higher business value, and maybe even less stress.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Planview Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Planview-Inc\/89422974772\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-04-14T13:02:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-02-20T14:08:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Predictability-blog-smaller-1024x683.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Chris Hefley\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Planview\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Planview\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Chris Hefley\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Chris Hefley\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b8967ef7a1e8bd33c3e848089e0382e0\"},\"headline\":\"Lean Metrics: Measure Predictability with Facts over Estimates\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-04-14T13:02:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-02-20T14:08:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/\"},\"wordCount\":665,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Predictability-blog-smaller-1024x683.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"LeanKit\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Work Management for Teams\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/lean-metrics-measure-predictability-with-facts-over-estimates\/\",\"name\":\"Lean Metrics: Measure Predictability with Facts over Estimates - 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