{"id":13219,"date":"2017-06-29T13:41:51","date_gmt":"2017-06-29T18:41:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/?p=13219"},"modified":"2020-03-12T13:44:08","modified_gmt":"2020-03-12T18:44:08","slug":"predictability-no-magic-required","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/","title":{"rendered":"Predictability: No Magic Required"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-13220\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/LK_Predictibility_webinar_Blog_image-1-1024x614.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"614\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/LK_Predictibility_webinar_Blog_image-1-1024x614.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/LK_Predictibility_webinar_Blog_image-1-1024x614-300x180.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/LK_Predictibility_webinar_Blog_image-1-1024x614-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/LK_Predictibility_webinar_Blog_image-1-1024x614-750x450.jpg 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In this webinar, I\u2019ll provide guidance around choices you can make that impact your ability to meet your commitments with confidence.<\/p>\n<p>You\u2019ll learn how to predict the cycle time of work before it\u2019s finished. I will also explain the basics of queuing theory, and the relationship between queue size, capacity utilization, and cycle times.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_80 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/#In_this_Webinar\" >In this Webinar<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/#Watch_the_Recording\" >Watch the Recording<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/#Q_A\" >Q&amp;A<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"In_this_Webinar\"><\/span>In this Webinar<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Armed with this insight, you\u2019ll be able to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Monitor your workflow for leading predictability indicators.<\/li>\n<li>Make informed choices to maximize your value throughput.<\/li>\n<li>Forecast delivery with better accuracy using Planview AgilePlace data and analytics.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>There\u2019s no magic required in achieving predictable delivery. The secret is using past performance data to predict future behavior.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Watch_the_Recording\"><\/span>Watch the Recording<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<div class=\"video-thumbnail text-center video-thumbnail-link-wrapper\"><a class=\"vidyard-modal\" href=\"#modal-video-vidyard\" data-uuid=\"Qfepg436iDxNNfHCKFgv9c\" data-toggle=\"modal\" data-target=\"#modal-video-vidyard\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-responsive center-block\" title=\"Video: Predictability: No Magic Required - Webinar\" src=\"https:\/\/play.vidyard.com\/Qfepg436iDxNNfHCKFgv9c.jpg\" alt=\"Video: Predictability: No Magic Required - Webinar\" \/><i class=\"icon-play-circle-solid\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_A\"><\/span>Q&amp;A<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Here\u2019s some answers to attendees\u2019 questions we didn\u2019t get to:<\/p>\n<h3>Estimates are based on skills and expertise, what advice do you have for improving predictably for a new cross-functional team?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>The value found in the practice of estimating lies more in what we learn about the work than in the estimate we give. I think this because our estimates are so often wrong \u2013 even when you have extremely experienced experts. Given that level of expertise doesn\u2019t guarantee accurate estimates, I think we should start moving towards using probabilities to forecast delivery dates instead. Like Troy Magennis from FocusedObjective.com advises people, do both and compare the results to find out what works best for you.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>How do you differentiate between tasks\/projects in the queue vs. ideas that would be good projects to execute? If you know the idea exists, does that mean it\u2019s in the queue?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>I think that it is important to determine your line of commitment on your Kanban board. My team\u2019s board has an incoming (vertical) lane in which all new cards are dropped. These stay there until they have been reviewed and classified into one of two lanes: \u2018Could Do\u2019 or \u2018Must Do\u2019. Cards that have potential value but are still considered optional are placed in the \u2018Could Do\u2019 column. \u00a0Cards that we believe we must do, for one reason or another, are placed in the \u2018Must Do\u2019 lane. When cards enter this lane, they have passed our line of commitment. I consider this a queue. If the number of cards we have committed to build up faster than we can pull them out then our queue of commitments grows and cycle\/lead times also grow.<\/li>\n<li>Keep in mind though, if you let your incoming lane grow and grow, that means you may have potential \u2018Must Do\u2019 items lingering there. My team meets on a cadence to triage these items and avoid ignoring critical requests.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>How do you convince people to take queue theory seriously? What do you do with historically collected queues (technical debt accumulated over many years)?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>My suggestion is to kill all the zombies. This is a term for work that\u2019s dead, but still hanging on to hope that one day it will be completed. We already have challenges doing work that is considered critical. If you have a backlog that would take years to process, even if you stopped doing any new work, it is time to make some important decisions. Cutting your backlog down to a reasonable amount of promising work cuts down on unnecessary management overhead as well, freeing you up to do more value-added work. Also, I think people who have requested the work will come to realize that being told no is more respectful being ignored.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>On the topic of assigning work, how do you handle multiple pieces of work that depend on each other?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Handling dependencies is more about coordinating in advance to be ready to start when needed than knowing exactly who will do the work. If multiple people have the skills to do a piece of work that something else is dependent on, you actually reduce the chance it will be done in time if you assign it in advance to a single person. My suggestion is to visualize which work is a priority \u2013 one of my favorite ways to do this is to use position in a lane to show priority \u2013 and ensure that you can see if a card blocks other work (meaning it is a dependency for another piece of work) or it is dependent on other work before it can be started. Planview AgilePlace uses card connections to help us visualize and manage this situation. Keep in mind that no process can completely remove the need for clear and timely verbal communication and coordination.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Click\u00a0<a title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/JuliaWester\/predictability-no-magic-required-leankit-webinar-june-2017\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-ol-has-click-handler=\"\">here<\/a>\u00a0to access these slides.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this webinar, I\u2019ll provide guidance around choices you can make that impact your ability to meet your commitments with confidence. You\u2019ll learn how to predict the cycle time of work before it\u2019s finished. I will also explain the basics of queuing theory, and the relationship between queue size, capacity utilization, and cycle times. In&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":155,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_editorskit_title_hidden":false,"_editorskit_reading_time":0,"_editorskit_is_block_options_detached":false,"_editorskit_block_options_position":"{}","footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[511],"class_list":["post-13219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-work-collaboration","tag-leankit"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Predictability: No Magic Required - Blog | Planview<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this webinar, I\u2019ll provide guidance around choices you can make that impact your ability to meet your commitments with confidence.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Predictability: No Magic Required\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this webinar, I\u2019ll provide guidance around choices you can make that impact your ability to meet your commitments with confidence.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Planview Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Planview-Inc\/89422974772\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-06-29T18:41:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-03-12T18:44:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/LK_Predictibility_webinar_Blog_image-1-1024x614.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Julia Wester\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Planview\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Planview\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Julia Wester\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Julia Wester\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/#\/schema\/person\/7df4e9ef34978cdc9ca216189640385e\"},\"headline\":\"Predictability: No Magic Required\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-06-29T18:41:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-03-12T18:44:08+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/\"},\"wordCount\":771,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/LK_Predictibility_webinar_Blog_image-1-1024x614.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"LeanKit\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Work Management for Teams\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.planview.com\/predictability-no-magic-required\/\",\"name\":\"Predictability: No Magic Required - 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